ANALYSIS:
President Biden suggests that Hamas’ recent attack on Israel was aimed at disrupting the potential peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This assessment aligns with the analysis of many regional experts who have been discussing this possibility since the attack on October 7th.
Hamas, backed by Iran, has always existed in the complicated geopolitical space between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran is the dominant Shiite Muslim power in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia is the most powerful Sunni Muslim monarchy in the region.
During a campaign fundraising event, President Biden stated that one of the reasons Hamas targeted Israel was due to their awareness of the potential alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia. According to Biden, “The Saudis wanted to recognize Israel” and were close to formalizing this recognition. This move would threaten Iran’s influence in the region.
Over the past few months, Jerusalem and Riyadh have been making progress towards normalization, with the help of the Biden administration. This is a result of the Abraham Accords, which were initiated by former President Trump and led to normalization agreements between Israel and Arab nations such as the UAE. Saudi Arabia expressed support for these agreements but did not join at the time.
The potential for Saudi Arabia to join the accords gained momentum when President Biden announced plans to develop a new shipping corridor that would enhance trade and energy connectivity between Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE, Jordan, India, and the European Union. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also publicly acknowledged that normalization with Saudi Arabia was within reach.
The details of the negotiations for normalization are confidential, but it is reported that Saudi Arabia has insisted on protections and expanded rights for Palestinians as part of any agreement with Israel. There have been discussions about Saudi Arabia potentially taking control of the Gaza Strip, the base for Iran-backed Hamas militants, as a condition for normalizing relations with Israel.
While it remains uncertain, the idea of Saudi control over security in Gaza has gained attention and concern from both Iran and Hamas. This move could provide security to Israel and offer financial, moral, and military support to the people living in these areas.
The possibility of an Israeli-Saudi alliance against Iran has long been a concern in the region. As a result, President Biden has cautiously embraced the Abraham Accords, which mark a shift in the U.S. approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This shift focuses on improving relations between Israel and Arab powers rather than pursuing traditional peace initiatives.
The rise of a nuclear Iran is a major concern for Arab countries, and they view Israel as the only power capable of deterring or protecting against this threat. These countries do not trust the United States to address this issue and see the U.S. as funding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The recent Hamas attack on Israel is seen as a test for Israel. If Israel can effectively respond to Hamas and dismantle the group, it brings the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia closer.
It is important to note that while Iran denies any involvement in the Hamas attack, many believe that this attack aligns with Iran’s goal of undermining Israel’s normalization with Arab countries.
The United States is working to prevent the conflict from escalating further, as concerned parties fear a potential war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has pointed out that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran oppose normalization efforts, which speaks volumes about their intentions.
This article is based on wire service reports.
