October Saw a Decrease in the Federal Reserve’s Preferred Inflation Measure

In October, a significant measure of inflation showed signs of decline, which is positive news for the Federal Reserve as they evaluate the necessity of taking further action to address rapid price increases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which is used by the Fed to aim for 2 percent inflation over time, increased by 3 percent in the year through October. This was a decrease from the previous month’s 3.4 percent and was in line with economist forecasts. Prices remained flat compared to the previous month. When volatile food and fuel prices were excluded for a clearer view of underlying price pressures, inflation increased by 3.5 percent over the year, which was a reduction from the previous 3.7 percent. Additionally, consumer spending showed a slight slowdown, with a 0.2 percent increase from September.

This report can provide valuable insights to Fed officials as they prepare for their final meeting of 2023. Although it is widely expected that borrowing costs will remain unchanged at the meeting, central bankers will release new economic projections that may hint at future policy plans. The Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, will also hold a news conference. According to Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, while the readings have been favorable, caution should still be exercised in declaring ‘Mission Accomplished’ too soon.

Policymakers have been closely monitoring both inflation and consumer spending to determine their course of action. Having already raised interest rates to 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in over two decades, many officials have indicated a need to pause and observe the impact of their policies. John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, suggested that he anticipates inflation to moderate sufficiently for the Fed to cease raising interest rates, while remaining open to the possibility of further increases if unexpected data emerges.

The economy has demonstrated resilience to the higher borrowing costs, contributing to the cautious stance maintained by the Fed. However, recent indications of restrained consumer and company behavior have been well-received. Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, expressed encouragement at the early signs of moderating economic activity, although he emphasized that it is too early to determine if the slowdown will be sustained. The discussion in the financial markets has started to revolve around the timing of the first interest rate cut, shedding light on the potential for future policy adjustments.

Despite discussions around potential rate cuts, caution is advised until data for late 2023 and early 2024 is available. It is important for the Fed to remain cautious and wait for more comprehensive data before considering any significant changes. Therefore, a cautious stance is likely to be maintained for the time being.