Throughout the Biden administration, Donald J. Trump would sit in his mirrored and gold-trimmed salon at Mar-a-Lago the place he had as soon as hosted China’s chief, Xi Jinping, brooding to guests in regards to the end result of the commerce settlement he signed with China in 2020.

Mr. Trump would castigate “silly individuals” within the White Home for failing to honor “my commerce settlement,” and muse about how, if he gained a second time period, he might strike the deal of a century with Mr. Xi.

Now again within the Oval Workplace, President Trump is eyeing the opportunity of a brand new commerce cope with China.

Greater than half a dozen present and former advisers and others conversant in Mr. Trump’s considering say that, though there could be important hurdles to reaching any settlement, the president want to strike a wide-ranging cope with Mr. Xi, one which goes past simply transforming the buying and selling relationship.

Mr. Trump has expressed curiosity in a deal that would come with substantial investments and commitments from the Chinese language to purchase extra American merchandise (regardless of China’s failure to purchase a further $200 billion of products and companies below the 2020 settlement). He would love an settlement to additionally embody points like nuclear weapons safety, which he envisions ironing out man to man with Mr. Xi, his advisers say.

Mr. Trump is already following a well-known playbook of tariffs and different threats as he appears to barter a deal. On Feb. 1, he hit Beijing with 10 % tariffs on all Chinese language imports — what the president known as an “opening salvo” — shortly leading to retaliation from the Chinese language. He has additionally floated the concept of revoking the everlasting regular buying and selling relations the USA prolonged to China greater than 20 years in the past.

China is among the United States’ largest nationwide safety threats, however additionally it is a serious buying and selling companion and a pivotal actor on a variety of points, together with nuclear safety, know-how and pandemic preparedness.

Whether or not the USA and China attain nearer ties, or spiral into battle, might come down largely to the mercurial inclinations of Mr. Trump as he pressures Beijing to provide extra floor to the USA.

Michael Pillsbury, a China knowledgeable who suggested Mr. Trump as he negotiated a commerce deal in his first time period, stated the president advised him “a couple of months in the past that he needs to make a cope with Xi Jinping that advantages each side.”

Mr. Pillsbury stated that the Trump staff was discussing points like who would take cost of the talks, what parts of the 2020 commerce deal the Chinese language had did not honor and the way finest to carry China again to the negotiating desk.

“The interior debate has began,” he stated.

Matthew Turpin, a White Home official through the first Trump administration who’s now a fellow on the Hoover Institute, stated it was not stunning that Mr. Trump — who has marketed himself to American voters as a deal maker — needed to hunt a brand new association with China, one which was favorable to the USA.

“If the day ends in a ‘y,’ it’s a day that’s good for a deal,” Mr. Turpin stated. However he added, “Donald Trump doesn’t wish to do what he would understand as dangerous offers.”

Advisers and analysts say the governments must overcome many obstacles to succeed in a deal, and that the Trump administration has not but settled on what it needs from China. The 2 sides have been floating proposals to carry Mr. Xi to Mar-a-Lago, or Mr. Trump to Beijing, however no official go to is but deliberate.

Advisers like Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s commerce secretary; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; and the billionaire Elon Musk have been encouraging the president’s instincts, telling him he is able to strike a big settlement, a former official and one other individual conversant in the conversations stated.

The president and his advisers blame the Chinese language for not retaining to the phrases of the 2020 settlement, in addition to the Biden administration for failing to implement it. All through Mr. Trump’s first time period, he held commerce talks with the Chinese language, finally imposing tariffs on greater than $300 billion of their merchandise in an effort to power them into an settlement, levies that Mr. Biden selected to keep up.

Of their 2020 pact, Chinese language officers had pledged to open sure markets to overseas corporations, higher defend know-how secrets and techniques and purchase American crops and power. However they by no means got here near assembly the buying targets, which Beijing stated was due to the Covid pandemic.

In an government order signed his first day, Mr. Trump ordered his advisers to evaluate China’s compliance with the deal and resolve whether or not to impose tariffs or different penalties by April. Throughout his affirmation listening to in January, Mr. Bessent steered Beijing might make “catch up” purchases to meet these commitments.

Some U.S. analysts have steered that latest weak spot within the Chinese language financial system would possibly make Mr. Xi extra prepared to strike a deal. However the U.S.-China relationship has change into much more difficult in ways in which might make arriving at a brand new pact more durable.

Weak point in its property market has pressured Beijing to lean much more closely on exports. China is flooding the world with automobiles, photo voltaic panels and different merchandise, placing factories in different nations out of enterprise.

Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. commerce negotiator who’s now a vp on the Asia Society Coverage Institute, stated any association should handle these thorny points. “Even for those who needed to begin a negotiation with China, it’s going to be very tough,” she stated.

The view from Beijing

Chinese language officers appear to view Mr. Trump warily, anticipating relations to stay contentious. They’re conscious that Mr. Trump is unafraid of imposing stiff tariffs and different penalties, however assume the president’s need to remodel commerce relations might carry him again to the negotiating desk.

In a latest paper, Zhu Min, a former senior Chinese language official and deputy managing director of the Worldwide Financial Fund, and two co-authors argued that Mr. Trump will really feel compelled to make good on guarantees to voters by selling financial and job development and increasing exports. However, they stated, Mr. Trump “has an boastful and self-righteous character,” and can wield energy in a “random, crude style.”

“China should perceive Trump’s twin character, intently observe his habits, negotiate with him based mostly on his elementary political targets as the underside line, and exploit his erratic and unstable character to play on that backside line,” they wrote.

Some Chinese language analysts have downplayed the chance of a deal, given the more and more antagonistic relationship. However Chinese language officers and assume tank consultants have been engaged on a proposal to draw Mr. Trump’s curiosity, and operating the concept by enterprise individuals and different consultants.

In line with a former diplomat, who declined to be named to debate personal conversations, one Chinese language provide might embody investments in the USA that will create an estimated half one million jobs in industries like photo voltaic, electrical automobiles and batteries. Chinese language corporations are prepared to debate taking minority stakes in joint ventures or licensing their know-how to American companions, the diplomat stated.

The proposal might additionally embody substantial Chinese language purchases of American exports, in addition to cooperation on sustaining peace with North Korea and rebuilding Ukraine. It could additionally embody guarantees to keep up the greenback because the pre-eminent international forex. (China and Russia’s efforts to develop an alternate have rankled Mr. Trump.)

It’s not clear what the Chinese language would ask for in return, although many analysts consider Mr. Xi would attempt to get reduction from a few of the tariffs Mr. Trump has imposed on the nation, in addition to export controls which have restricted China’s entry to superior know-how.

Chinese language officers and others with authorities ties have additionally been attempting to develop unofficial again channels, by way of which leaders have traditionally handed info backwards and forwards whereas Beijing and Washington negotiate.

The Chinese language have significantly been probing the function that Mr. Musk — who has intensive enterprise pursuits in China by way of Tesla — will play within the Trump administration. Han Zheng, China’s vp, who was despatched to attend Mr. Trump’s inauguration in lieu of Mr. Xi, met with Mr. Musk in January, in addition to Vice President JD Vance.

It’s not clear how a lot Mr. Musk has mentioned China with Mr. Trump. However a former official conversant in the conversations stated Mr. Musk had expressed confidence that offers may very well be made, and that it was vital for the USA to search out methods to work with China to keep away from heightened tensions.

The query of funding

Mr. Bessent and Mr. Lutnick — who might find yourself main any negotiations with China — are contemplating proposals that they consider might rebalance commerce, individuals conversant in the discussions stated.

That features important Chinese language investments in the USA; substantial purchases of U.S. crops, airplanes and different items; and doubtlessly some association to handle Chinese language manufacturing overcapacity.

Mr. Lutnick declined to remark. Mr. Bessent, Mr. Musk and a spokesman for the White Home didn’t reply to a request for remark. An individual conversant in Mr. Bessent’s views, who requested anonymity to debate his considering, stated Mr. Bessent was primarily targeted on enforcement of China’s prior commerce commitments at this level, not future calls for.

Welcoming Chinese language manufacturing facility funding in the USA may very well be significantly divisive throughout the Trump administration, on condition that a number of officers — together with Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Mike Waltz, the nationwide safety adviser; and Peter Navarro, senior commerce counselor — see Chinese language funding as a safety risk.

Federal and state governments, in addition to Congress, have additionally taken a stricter stance on Chinese language purchases of know-how corporations and actual property in recent times.

However Mr. Trump has thought of offers the place others wouldn’t, like supporting an funding by Japan’s Nippon Metal in U.S. Metal, and discovering an acquirer to rescue TikTok. Whereas campaigning, Mr. Trump stated he would welcome Chinese language corporations to construct auto crops in the USA, so long as they employed regionally.

One individual conversant in conferences Mr. Trump attended throughout his first time period to evaluate incoming investments for nationwide safety points stated that the president had dismissed intelligence neighborhood assessments in regards to the dangers and argued for promoting property to the Chinese language, so long as the value was proper.

Not like different officers, Mr. Trump doesn’t seem to have a robust ideological stance on U.S. know-how restrictions on China or Taiwanese democracy, as an alternative viewing them as one other supply of leverage over Beijing.

Mr. Trump additionally sees the connection with China in private phrases, as a problem to iron out between himself and the Chinese language chief. In his first month in workplace, Mr. Trump has taken an aggressive strategy to the overseas leaders of Canada, Colombia, Denmark and Panama, however has had constructive phrases for Mr. Xi.

In January, Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social that he and Mr. Xi would cooperate to make the world extra peaceable and protected.

“It’s my expectation that we are going to resolve many issues collectively, and beginning instantly,” he stated.

Chris Buckley and Alan Rappeport contributed reporting.