March 17, 2025 | by

For the second time this week, President Trump has threatened to disrupt commerce with a detailed ally for retaliating in a commerce battle that he began — a tactic that might result in compromise, or to financial spats that spiral additional uncontrolled.
On Thursday morning, Mr. Trump tried to cow the European Union into submission, threatening in a social media post to place a 200 % tariff on European wine and Champagne except the bloc dropped a 50 % tariff on U.S. whiskey. The European Union had imposed that tariff in response to levies that Mr. Trump placed on international metal and aluminum on Wednesday.
Mr. Trump deployed an analogous tactic towards Canada on Tuesday, threatening to double 25 % tariffs on Canadian metal and aluminum to attempt to get Ontario to raise a surcharge on electrical energy offered to america. The province had imposed the cost after Mr. Trump put different tariffs on Canada this month.
After Ontario suspended its surcharge, Mr. Trump walked again his threats.
Over the past a number of weeks, Mr. Trump has presided over a complicated and probably economically devastating backwards and forwards of tariffs and tariff threats, enjoying a world recreation of hen as he tries to get a number of the United States’ closest allies and buying and selling companions to again down.
Mr. Trump has wielded the tariff threats with out regard for his or her financial penalties and, more and more, seemingly with out regard for the impression on inventory markets. The S&P 500 slumped once more on Thursday after Mr. Trump threatened Europe and reiterated on the White Home that he would impose massive tariffs.
When requested whether or not he may relent on Canada, which despatched a delegation to america on Thursday to attempt to calm commerce tensions, Mr. Trump mentioned: “I’m not going to bend in any respect.”
He mentioned america didn’t want imports like lumber and vitality from Canada, one in every of America’s largest buying and selling companions. “We don’t want something they’ve,” he mentioned.
The president, who spoke to reporters throughout a gathering with Mark Rutte, the secretary common of the North Atlantic Treaty Group, acknowledged that his tariffs might trigger “just a little disruption” however mentioned that “it received’t be very lengthy.”
“And we now have to do that,” he mentioned. “I’m sorry, we now have to do that.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, requested on Thursday about market volatility and the financial results of tariffs, mentioned the White Home was not involved “concerning the quick time period.”
“We’ve received strategic industries we’ve received to have,” Mr. Bessent mentioned. “We need to defend the American employee.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick additionally warned different international locations towards retaliating towards america, saying in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Thursday that Mr. Trump might reply temperamentally.
“When you make him sad, he responds sad,” Mr. Lutnick mentioned.
Mr. Lutnick mentioned some international locations, like Britain and Mexico, had thoughtfully examined how they did enterprise with america. However for international locations that reply with additional tariffs, “the president’s going to take care of them with power and with energy,” he threatened.
It stays to be seen whether or not different international locations will retaliate with their very own levies and, if that’s the case, what number of financial disagreements could spiral into true tit-for-tat commerce wars. Mr. Trump has promised extra levies on vehicles and different merchandise to return in April.
Some governments, like these in Australia, Brazil, Britain, Japan and Mexico, have chosen to not retaliate for now, as they struggle different routes to defuse tensions with Mr. Trump. However China, the European Union and Canada have all made completely different calculations.
These governments could also be inspired by home political constituencies to face as much as Mr. Trump’s bullying or, within the case of Europe and China, emboldened by the dimensions of their economies.
Some European officers mentioned they wouldn’t bow to strain. In a press release on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Fee, the bloc’s government arm, mentioned that Europe wanted to behave to “defend shoppers and enterprise” and that it could take “sturdy however proportionate” countermeasures.
“We won’t give in to threats,” Laurent Saint-Martin, France’s international commerce minister, said in a post on X. Mr. Trump “is escalating the commerce battle he selected to unleash,” he added.
Canadian officers have additionally typically been outspoken towards america, a dynamic that could be amplified by a political transition and an upcoming federal election in Canada.
“When you hit us, we are going to hit again,” Chrystia Freeland, a former Canadian minister of finance, mentioned in an interview on CNN on Thursday. Ms. Freeland mentioned that Canada was small however that it had leverage within the financial relationship as a result of it was the most important export marketplace for america by far.
“Canada is a extra essential export marketplace for the U.S. than China, Japan, the U.Ok. and France mixed,” she mentioned. “You guys are the nation that invented the phrase ‘the client is at all times proper.’ Effectively, we’re your largest buyer.”
Mr. Trump could also be playing on the concept different international locations are extra depending on the U.S. market than america is on them. Canada sends about 80 % of its exports to america, whereas roughly 17 % of U.S. exports go to Canada.
However being bigger and extra distant, the European Union and China are much less reliant on American consumers. The USA is the vacation spot for about 20 % of E.U. exports and about 15 % of Chinese language exports.
On Thursday, Canada initiated a dispute on the World Commerce Group over the metal and aluminum tariffs that Mr. Trump had imposed the day earlier than. China initiated a swimsuit over a separate tranche of tariffs final month. However the W.T.O. challenges are largely a symbolic gesture, since america disabled the group’s dispute settlement system in Mr. Trump’s first time period.
Canadian officers had been anticipated to fulfill with Mr. Lutnick to debate commerce points on Thursday. A European spokesman mentioned Maros Sefcovic, the European Union’s commerce commissioner, would speak with each Mr. Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. commerce consultant, on Friday.
Jeanna Smialek and Matina Stevis-Gridneff contributed reporting.
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