If the commerce struggle between China and the US is a sport of high-stakes brinkmanship, it’s at present a sport that Beijing just isn’t prepared to play.

Confronted with rising claims by President Trump and administration officers that the 2 nations are engaged in talks and {that a} deal could possibly be reached in a matter of weeks, China’s Overseas Ministry pushed again forcefully on Friday by posting on X: “China and the U.S. are NOT having any session or negotiation. The U.S. ought to cease creating confusion.”

The submit got here hours after a international ministry spokesman, Guo Jiakun, mentioned the US was “deceptive the general public.” A day earlier, Mr. Guo referred to as the rumors of talks “pretend information.”

The response was the most recent signal that China’s prime chief, Xi Jinping, intends to carry agency in his standoff with Mr. Trump, sensing that his place is strengthening. Beijing is betting that it could abdomen the ache of a commerce struggle higher than the Trump administration can due to U.S. political strain and volatility on Wall Road, analysts say.

“The Chinese language will not be desperate to climb down the ladder,” mentioned Yun Solar, the director of the China program on the Stimson Middle in Washington. “They see Trump as desirous to climb down and are glad to let him stew in his personal juice.”

Ms. Solar mentioned Beijing is not going to come to the negotiation desk with none U.S. concessions or a good-will gesture. That might embrace scaling again tariffs, or making clear that Mr. Trump is reaching out to Mr. Xi first.

“Beijing has the higher hand, why hassle to achieve out?” Ms. Solar mentioned. “If the U.S. needs to speak, it must pay a value.”

In an interview with Time journal revealed on Friday, Mr. Trump mentioned that Mr. Xi had referred to as him and that the 2 have been attempting to strike a tariff deal.

“I don’t assume that’s an indication of weak spot on his behalf,” Mr. Trump mentioned of Mr. Xi’s name, in response to the article.

China has not mentioned that Mr. Xi has spoken to Mr. Trump since a name they held on Jan. 17, three days earlier than Mr. Trump’s inauguration.

It’s not the primary time Mr. Trump has claimed to have spoken to the Chinese language chief since returning to the White Home. In February, he advised the Fox Information host Bret Baier in an interview that he and Mr. Xi had spoken someday after the Jan. 17 name.

China, which has imposed its personal jaw-dropping tariffs on U.S. items in retaliation, has repeatedly mentioned that it’s open to commerce negotiations, however that it could not accomplish that below duress. The USA must deal with China with respect, officers have mentioned, including that Beijing is prepared to “struggle to the tip” if vital.

China’s powerful posture displays Mr. Xi’s must venture a strongman picture in opposition to the Trump administration. The Chinese language chief sees himself as a transformational determine restoring glory to his nation within the face of Western bullying, specifically by the US.

In contrast to through the first Trump administration, China believes it’s higher ready to struggle again in a commerce struggle due to an array of recent financial instruments like export controls. Earlier this month, in response to a brand new spherical of U.S. tariffs, China restricted American entry to essential uncommon earth supplies wanted to supply missiles, batteries and semiconductors. China dominates the marketplace for uncommon earth components, whereas makes an attempt by the US to seek out different sources are nonetheless years from bearing fruit.

“Beijing considers its management over uncommon earth minerals to be a vital element of its arsenal within the commerce struggle with the U.S.,” mentioned Eswar Prasad, an economist centered on worldwide commerce at Cornell College. “Beijing is aware of effectively that proscribing entry to those minerals would severely disrupt U.S. high-tech manufacturing, inflicting vital ache to the extra dynamic elements of the U.S. manufacturing sector.”

A protracted commerce struggle would check Mr. Xi’s management by inflicting severe ache on the Chinese language financial system, which has already been hobbled by a property disaster and weak shopper confidence. Exports stay one of many solely engines of progress for China, and the US is the nation’s largest single export market.

In an indication that China could already be feeling the sting of the commerce struggle, the Chinese language authorities is outwardly contemplating whether or not to exclude some important merchandise from its retaliatory 125 p.c tariffs on American items, together with lifesaving medication and different health-care merchandise, in response to the American Chamber of Commerce in China.