Kevin Phillips, Forecaster of Republican Ascendancy, Passes Away at 82

Kevin Phillips, the author, commentator and political strategist known for his influential book “The Emerging Republican Majority,” has died at the age of 82. His book, published in 1969, became a blueprint for Republican thinking and predicted a shift in American politics. Phillips foresaw Richard Nixon’s victory in the presidential election and the rise of the Republican coalition, driven by a backlash against the Civil Rights Movement and Great Society programs. While Roosevelt and the Democrats had relied on economic resentment, Phillips believed that the Republicans could win based on cultural resentment.

Phillips’ book introduced labels such as “Sun Belt” for the thriving Republican communities in the South and “The Southern strategy” for exploiting the fears of white voters. The Republican control predicted by Phillips came true, with the GOP winning four out of the five presidential elections held from 1972-88. However, Phillips was criticized for overlooking the role of evangelical voters and the growing numbers of Hispanic voters, which would help Democrats in the future.

Over time, Phillips became a disillusioned critic of both parties. He criticized the television networks in the 1970s for being biased against Republicans and supported antitrust legislation against them. But in the 1980s, he lost confidence in the Republicans and expressed his dissatisfaction with their policies. His book “The Politics of Rich and Poor: Wealth and Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath” lamented the state of politics under GOP rule in the previous decade, highlighting the rise of income inequality.

Kevin Phillips will be remembered as a prominent figure in American political analysis, whose ideas and predictions shaped the way commentators understand American politics. His insights into the Republican Party’s rise and the shifting dynamics of American politics remain influential today.